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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
April 6, 2023
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2023
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 06/0553Z from Region 3272 (S21E72). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 05/2107Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4252 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 137
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

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