Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 06/0553Z from Region 3272 (S21E72). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 05/2107Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4252 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 137
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

space weather