Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1.9 event observed at 05/1217Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1.9 event observed at 05/1217Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/0331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3213 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 137
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 009/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20

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