Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 03/2353Z from Region 3270 (S23W18). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 04/0159Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2419 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Apr, 06 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (07 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 136
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 009/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/25/20

Space Weather