Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/2313Z from Region 3270 (S23W04). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 02/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1933Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4292 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 134
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 011/014-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/40

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