Earth

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
April 1, 2023
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2023
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/0328Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 662 km/s at 01/0247Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3744 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 125
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 007/008-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/45

space weather

SpaceRef co-founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.