Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/0328Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 662 km/s at 01/0247Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3744 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 125
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 007/008-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/45
space weather
