Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 30/0737Z from Region 3256 (S22W88). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/2027Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 25/20/15
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 140
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 015/018-014/016-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/35/35
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/45/40
space weather
