Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 29/0233Z from Region 3256 (S22W74). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 29/0700Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3867 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (31 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 25/10/10
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 148
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 012/018-013/018-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/40
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/50/50
space weather
