Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 28/1547Z from Region 3256 (S22W62). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 28/0022Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1813 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 159
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 006/005-012/018-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/45/50

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