Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 27/0636Z from Region 3256 (S21W59). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 26/2203Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1521 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 158
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 155/145/145
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 008/008-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
space weather
