Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1708Z from Region 3256 (S23W45). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 26/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 746 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 159
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 160/155/145
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 011/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/20
space weather
