Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/1340Z from Region 3259 (S21W05). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 24/1114Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 23/2312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (25 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 158
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 028/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 035/062
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 020/030-015/020-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/55/50
space weather
