Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 22/2109Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 23/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 23/1859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Mar), active to minor storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 151
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 023/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 024/035-020/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 45/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 85/65/55

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