Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/2357Z from Region 3257 (S28E40). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 22/1112Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 540 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and active to minor storm levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 159
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 015/020-028/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 35/45/40
Major-severe storm 10/20/25
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 75/85/80
space weather
