Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 21/1354Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 428 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Mar) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 152
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 006/005-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/40/65
Space weather
