Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/0948Z from Region 3184 (S13E81). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 08/0847Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0301Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 184
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 185/185/180
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 006/005-006/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/40
Space Weather
