Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/1507Z from Region 3247 (S24W78). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 17/0018Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/0327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 134
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 132/130/128
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 006/005-006/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40
space weather
