Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/1255Z from Region 3245 (S24W98). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 135
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 135/140/138
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
Space weather
