Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 13/1106Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (14 Mar, 15 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 12/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 13/0137Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13 pfu at 13/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 05/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 25/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 143
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 142/140/145
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 011/012-020/025-021/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/10/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/65/70
Space weather
