Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/0719Z from Region 3253 (S30W01). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 12/0856Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/0639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 726 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 150
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 005/005-007/008-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/35
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/65
space weather
