Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/0052Z from Region 3182 (S17E46). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 07/0307Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Jan, 10 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 179
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 180/178/178
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/30
space weather
