Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 10/0708Z from Region 3245 (S23W18). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 10/1100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1982 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 171
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 172/170/160
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/008-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/25

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