Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/0405Z from Region 3243 (N18W89). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 07/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 180
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 180/180/178
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 011/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/20
space weather
