Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 06/0228Z from Region 3243 (N18W78). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 06/0854Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3789 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (09 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 188
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 190/195/190
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 013/016-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/35/20
Space weather
