Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0252Z from Region 3238 (N09W18). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 05/1336Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1459Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6750 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 180
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 185/190/200
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 016/020-015/016-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/25
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 65/40/40
space weather
