Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 04/1557Z from Region 3234 (N25W90). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 03/2202Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1697 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (05 Mar, 06 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 182
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 185/190/195
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 016/022-016/020-015/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/30
Minor Storm 30/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/65/40
Space weather
