Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X2.1/1b flare at 03/1752Z from Region 3234 (N25W76). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 03/1014Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/0806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1400 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 175
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 175/175/180
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/016-016/022-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/45
Minor Storm 10/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/65/65

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