Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/1210Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 01/2142Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3374 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 45/45/30
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 169
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 006/005-010/012-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/35
Minor Storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/40/55
space weather
