- Press Release
- Mar 20, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 28/1750Z from Region 3234 (N25W36). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 27/2141Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 735 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (03 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 50/50/45
Class X 15/15/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 161
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 160/160/156
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 060/109
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 013/016-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 60/30/20