Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/1200Z from Region 3235 (N19W34). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 26/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 26/2058Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 26/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (27 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (01 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 99/50/25
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 159
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 037/056-020/032-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/35
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/10
Minor Storm 10/20/25
Major-severe storm 90/75/60
space weather
