Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 25/1944Z from Region 3229 (N25W46). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 24/2252Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/1746Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 25/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 966 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (28 Feb). Protons are expected to be above threshold as a 10 MeV proton event is in progress.
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 99/99/99
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 152
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 013/020-026/036-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/40
Minor Storm 30/40/25
Major-severe storm 05/25/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 70/79/65
space weather
