Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 22/1350Z from Region 3234 (N25E47). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 22/0602Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 22/0011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 152
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 150/148/148
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-007/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25

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