Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 21/2017Z from Region 3234 (N24E60). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 21/1903Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/0957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 21/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 427 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 161
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 158/154/152
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/012-007/010-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25

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