Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/0523Z from Region 3213 (N28W0*). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 14/2306Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15/0810Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 15/1914Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 45/35/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 174
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 175/172/170
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 024/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 018/018-014/022-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor Storm 25/30/40
Major-severe storm 05/15/25
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 60/70/80
space weather
