Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/1212Z from Region 3213 (N28W92). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 13/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1751 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 55/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 180
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 178/178/178
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 011/015-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/15
space weather
