Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/1556Z from Region 3226 (N11E33). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 12/2248Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5446 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 65/55/55
Class X 20/10/10
Proton 20/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 189
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 190/185/185
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 008/010-013/016-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/50/30
space weather
