Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 12/0848Z from Region 3217 (S12E22). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 11/2159Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1206 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 80/75/65
Class X 25/25/20
Proton 20/20/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 200
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 200/195/190
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-007/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/45
Space weather
