Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/1845Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 04/0209Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 04/0924Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/0300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 151
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 152/154/152
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 015/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/30
Space Weather
