Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/2007Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 07/0822Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 185
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 185/185/190
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 011/012-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/25

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