Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 30/1938Z from Region 3176 (N20E10). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 30/2012Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 30/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3678 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 162
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 162/160/160
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 022/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 013/017-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/40/20

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