Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 29/1833Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 29/0105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2808 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 50/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 163
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 164/162/160
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 013/016-011/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/50/40
space weather
