Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/0054Z from Region 3176 (N19E50). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 27/0321Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1630 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec NA
Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 27 Dec 131 estimated

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 010/015-008/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/35

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