Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 26/1658Z from Region 3169 (N21W45). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 749 km/s at 26/0035Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 26/1148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2947 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec NA
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 131/131/131
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 131 estimated

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 020/030-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/20

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