Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 25/0701Z from Region 3169 (N21W32). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 25/0006Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1433 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (27 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec Not available
Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 135/136/138
90 Day Mean 25 Dec 133 estimated
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 009/010-023/030-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 01/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/50/30
space weather
