Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0414Z from Region 3169 (N20W21). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 24/1012Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 10/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 133
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 133/135/136
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 018/020-015/018-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/50
Space weather
