Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 23/1446Z from Region 3171 (N24E12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 22/2324Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/1922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/1230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 10/10/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 128
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 132/132/135
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 014/016-013/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/30/25
