Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/2219Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 22/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 131
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/010-009/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20

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