Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 04/0055Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 04/0552Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/0341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 139
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 140/145/150
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 006/005-008/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/40
Space Weather
