Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 14/1442Z from Region 3165 (S20W49). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Dec) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (16 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 14/0336Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 400 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 75/60/50
Class X 15/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 165
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 164/160/158
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

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